One of the most prestigious US think tanks, Stratfor, recently published its 2026 Annual Forecast, and it reflects on Armenia-Azerbaijan relations, too.
According to the report, Armenia and Azerbaijan will take modest steps this year to implement the agreements reached last year to establish peace, thereby reducing the risk of another war. The two countries will likely cautiously continue trade relations and try to create a climate of trust—but through moderate trade cooperation, not comprehensive economic integration.
Domestically, according to Stratfor, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will face growing public discontent, mainly due to alleged concessions to Azerbaijan and strained relations with the Armenian Apostolic Church.
The constitutional amendment, which Azerbaijan demands from Armenia as a precondition for the final signing of the peace treaty, will also continue to cause strong public discontent in Armenia, and therefore Pashinyan will probably try to put off the referendum on this matter until after the parliamentary elections expected in June, Stratfor notes.
If Pashinyan is not re-elected, the fate of the peace treaty will become more uncertain, Stratfor’s analysts believe. But if he retains power, the implementation of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) project will become a priority for him in order to reap tangible benefits from this agreement and demonstrate them.
As per Stratfor, Azerbaijan will complete the construction of its section of the Araz corridor, which runs parallel to TRIPP through Iranian territory, and will keep TRIPP in its hands as a lever of pressure and an alternative, and in this way try to exclude Armenia from regional integration if Yerevan does not cooperate.
And Russia, according to Stratfor’s forecast, will try to challenge the implementation of TRIPP, but the weakening of its regional positions will limit Moscow’s ability to prevent both Armenia and Azerbaijan from turning toward the West.
